1.2.7: Applied example - the modelling cycle in a student report#
The preceding sections examined the stages of the modelling cycle individually, from the conceptual model (1.2.1) to using the model (1.2.6). This section presents them as they appear together in a complete study: a report in which a student group applies the full cycle to a single research question. The report serves two purposes here. It illustrates what a finished modelling study looks like, and it provides practice in identifying each stage of the cycle within an existing piece of work.
1.2.7.1: The report#
The report, Residential Energy Label Transitions, was produced by a student group for an agent-based modelling course. It formulates a policy question for the municipality of Delft, develops and runs a model of homeowners deciding whether to upgrade their houses to higher energy labels, and reports the results. The model is implemented in Python using the Mesa library, and the report covers the complete cycle in approximately thirty pages. Its Methods section follows broadly the same sequence as Sections 1.2.1 to 1.2.6; the objective here is to recognise that structure rather than to master the energy-policy content. Read the report once in full before attempting the activity that follows.
Activity: identifying each stage#
The activity below presents one representative sentence for each stage of the cycle, of the kind found throughout the report. Match each sentence to the stage it belongs to.
1.2.7.2: From the cycle to good practice#
Examining a study stage by stage, rather than accepting its conclusions at face value, is what allows its reliability to be assessed. This completes the treatment of the modelling cycle: a model can now be followed from an initial question through to a justified answer, and the same sequence can be recognised in the work of others. Whether a model is sound, however, depends not only on completing the cycle but on completing it well. Section 1.3 (1.3: Good practices of modelling) addresses this, examining what good practice contributes at each stage.
Key takeaways#
Key takeaways
A finished modelling report should make every stage of the cycle traceable, from the research question to the use of the results.
Reading an existing report stage by stage reveals where its assumptions, evidence, and conclusions can be checked.
Completing the cycle is necessary, but the quality of each stage determines whether the final claim is trustworthy.